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How things have changed over the last couple of gameweeks as Man United have climbed to the top of the league followed by local rivals Man City and Leicester in third place. The Red Devils are undefeated in their last 13 matches including draws against Liverpool, Leicester, and Man City. Meanwhile defending champions Liverpool have slipped in form as this has translated to poor returns for their FPL assets as the Reds dropped points to Burnley, Man United, Southampton, Newcastle, and West Brom. Arsenal seem to have put their early-season misery behind them after having moved up to eleventh place and are undefeated in their last 5 matches, while local London rivals Chelsea have slipped in form and now find themselves in ninth place overall.
It was a tough gameweek for FPL Managers as injuries hit several key players including Kevin De Bruyne who looks set to miss the next few matches for Man City as the Belgian international looks to recover from a partial hamstring tear before the clash with Liverpool in GW23. Teammate Sergio Aguero has once again encountered a setback as the Argentinian international received a positive coronavirus test and must clear league protocols before making a return. Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers confirmed that striker Jamie Vardy would undergo a hernia operation and hopes to return in 10 days, as Marcus Rashford continues to face fitness concerns as the Man United midfielder awaits the results of a scan following injury in the FA Cup match against Liverpool.
GKs – Despite an unfortunate spell missing GW18 through a blank followed by illness in GW19, young phenom Illan Meslier looks set to return between the sticks as Leeds embark on a favorable run of fixtures over the next 11 matches which may also include a yet-to-be rescheduled match against Southampton. The French international can be paired with a cheap backup to save budget or as part of a rotation with either Sam Johnstone who returned to the starting lineup for West Brom after missing the first match in DGW19, or Jordan Pickford as Everton look to capitalize on another solid run after failing to keep a clean sheet over the past 4 matches.
Defenders – A fine display from Man City defenders during the double gameweek and 3 consecutive clean sheets. While Ruben Dias has been the linchpin of the defense, it was John Stones who was the talk of the town as the young English international star delivered an unlikely brace against Crystal Palace during which teammate Joao Cancelo started on the bench and only featured as a late substitute.
Chelsea assets are back on the rise after several disappointing results with a single clean sheet over the past 5 matches. Ben Chilwell continues to provide significant attacking threat down the left flank which teammate Thiago Silva orchestrates the backline. Despite a serious dip in form for Liverpool, Andy Robertson remains the highest scoring FPL defender with 2 clean sheets in the past 4 matches.
Midfielders – Bruno Fernandes climbs to the top of the midfielder tables as Man United host Sheffield United and embark on a favorable run of fixtures. Not the best schedule for Tottenham but Heung-Min Son continues to deliver returns with strike partner Harry Kane as Spurs remain in title contention. It’s been a disappointing run for Mo Salah recently as Liverpool have slipped from league leaders to fourth place overall following a shocking home defeat to Burnley.
Man City assets are back on the rise especially in the absence of injured teammate Kevin De Bruyne with budget-friendly assets Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan, the latter having recently taken over spot-kick duties. English international Raheem Sterling will also look to step up and help lead the line against West Brom, Sheffield United, and Burnley over the next 3 matches.
Forwards – Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin reclaims top spot of the forward tables despite missing the last match through injury and generally poor form with no attacking returns over the past 3 gameweeks, and it’s also been a mixed bag for Danny Ings with just a single goal over the past 6 matches for Southampton. On the other hand, Harry Kane keeps on ticking for Tottenham as the English star delivered 3 goals and an assist over the last 3 matches.
Despite solid underlying stats and a very budget-friendly price tag, young Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has been a somewhat frustrating FPL asset delivering just a single goal over the past 4 matches, and Patrick Bamford seems to have slipped in form with no attacking returns in his last 2 matches for Leeds. Meanwhile, Michail Antonio has made a triumphant return from injury delivering 2 goals during the double gameweek for West Ham and hopes to capitalize once more against a weak Crystal Palace defence.
No need to overthink the captaincy selection this week as Bruno Fernandes faces a shaky Sheffield backline which has kept just a single clean sheet all season and conceded the fourth highest amount of goals in the league with 32. An out-of-form Mo Salah faces a tough challenge against fifth-place Tottenham while Kevin De Bruyne faces potentially several weeks out, leaving perhaps teammate Raheem Sterling as a viable alternative as Man City face West Brom. FPL Managers may also wish to start thinking about future plans for the second Wildcard as we await upcoming Premier League announcements over the next round of rescheduled matches and upcoming double gameweeks.
Alex “The Analyst” Potier
On behalf of The Transfer Algorithm
It’s all change at the top after a massive double-gameweek for most sides saw some huge FFL scores, with many on the leaderboard notching 120’s, 130’s and even 150+ scores. Ashwin Ramnawaj’s Team United are the new leaders on 1,306 points.
Full standings available here.
The UPTV Transfer Guru is Mikkel Tokvam, developer of the Transfer Algorithm.
About Mikkel: Fantasy football is full of noise. Too much information slamming around about statistics like players being “big-game”, “fixture-proof”, “better away than at home” or “needs this or that player to deliver returns” (like the Kane – Dembele conspiracy a few years ago).
Motivated by this nonsense, I have let the machine load the data. Tonnes of data. And compute what matters in predicting the future by observing the past.
Since its inception in 2014, the Transfer Algorithm has produced exceptional results and helped propel FPL Managers to new heights, including some of the most talented and successful competitors around the world. With dozens of key statistics considered for each player and data sets spanning many years of historical performance, the Transfer Algorithm is set up to provide a close to perfect point-expectation for future returns, comparing one with other available players, and responding with simple value metrics for choosing the optimal players for future returns on a limited budget.
This season’s top prize is a signed, framed Eric Cantona shirt, courtesy of A1 Sporting Memorabilia!
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