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Just as Chelsea defenders were in the shopping cart for many FPL managers, West Brom beat them 5-2 at the Bridge. Truly shocking. At least Chelsea put it straight again beating Porto 2-0 in Portugal in midweek. Elsewhere, Liverpool put Arsenal away with a 3-0 win at the Emirates, with Jota stealing the headlines with a brace in his sub appearance. Spurs only managed a draw away to Newcastle, but Kane delivered a brace anyway. Ahead of Spurs DGW 32, Bale’s short cameo looks like trouble. Son was subbed on at half time, despite Mourinho promising he was going to start, so nothing new there.
In midweek there has been plenty of important European action, with quarter finals ongoing. Arsenal and United in the Europa League, and Chelsea, City and Liverpool in the Champions League. GW 31 is tucked in between the two quarter final legs, so expect lots of rest and rotation. Most prone to rotation are obviously City assets, as the Premier League is pretty much wrapped up – and Pep has two first elevens to choose from. At less risk are probably Chelsea and United players, as they are huge favourites after 2-0 away wins in Europe.
GKs – Both Martinez and Lloris got DGWs down the line, so one or both is the way to go forward. The DGW is a straight bonus, as both have looked excellent options for the entire season anyway.
Defenders –Last week was all about getting on the Chelsea bus for defenders. After this week’s thrashing by West Brom, they mostly fall off the list. Rotation is also a big issue in their defence. Last season’s clear top value options at Liverpool’s full back positions go back on top. Now also with some promising signs of form to go with an exceptional long term track record. They are joined by Shaw, who fortunately is suspended for the second leg in the Europa League Quarter Final. Next week, Spurs have a DGW followed by a blank GW in GW 33. Reguillon is a great candidate to get in on the action, as Davies currently is injured.
Midfielders –Neto, Lingard and Jota currently offer great value in midfield. Jota is ranked somewhat lower than the other two simply down to the risk of rotation. As for the big guns, Salah, Son and Fernandes are the three to go to. Many will only be able to afford two of them without sacrificing too much elsewhere though, which means Fernandes for many should be the odd one missing out – at least until after Son’s DGW in GW 32.
Forwards – Kane and Calvert Lewin remain at the top of the rankings for the best strikers to hold going forward according to the Transfer Algorithm. They are joined by the Leicester duo, where obviously Iheanacho’s rare inclusion is stealing the headlines. Other than the top 5, there really is a lack of good options offering value in attack at the moment – making it tempting for anyone on a wildcard to consider going for only two playable strikers.
For those with a wildcard left to play, I am currently observing lots of itchy fingers for wildcarding this week. The reason: Brighton, Leeds and Villa have some horrible fixtures coming up – and most teams did load up on those ahead of BGW 29. I’ve done the calculations for it and combined it with the expectations for the remaining gameweeks. The results are clear; you are very likely better off by accepting to play some junk the next weeks, and hold the wildcard until GW 33/34. Information about the remaining fixture rescheduling (which can be massive based on Covid reopening) imply a big case for waiting. It is expected to know much more about what happens ahead of GW 33, or for GW 34 at the latest.
Patience is key. Information is gold.
Tor Mikkel Tokvam
Creator of The Transfer Algorithm
Sandup Lama’s [email protected] remains on top and there are now six sides that are pulling away from the pack as the season moves into the final few matches.
Full standings are available here.
The UPTV Transfer Guru is Mikkel Tokvam, developer of the Transfer Algorithm.
About Mikkel: Fantasy football is full of noise. Too much information slamming around about statistics like players being “big-game”, “fixture-proof”, “better away than at home” or “needs this or that player to deliver returns” (like the Kane – Dembele conspiracy a few years ago).
Motivated by this nonsense, I have let the machine load the data. Tonnes of data. And compute what matters in predicting the future by observing the past.
Since its inception in 2014, the Transfer Algorithm has produced exceptional results and helped propel FPL Managers to new heights, including some of the most talented and successful competitors around the world. With dozens of key statistics considered for each player and data sets spanning many years of historical performance, the Transfer Algorithm is set up to provide a close to perfect point-expectation for future returns, comparing one with other available players, and responding with simple value metrics for choosing the optimal players for future returns on a limited budget.
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